Pen to Paper
Notes From My Weekend Market Scan
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It’s that time again… Let’s rise and grind!
Want to know what I am thinking? Well, check out my notes direct from my weekend scan of the markets.
Commodities / Currencies
FX:
DXY is fading from 92 resistance level
EUR is back above 50 & 200-day; Never reached oversold conditions
AUD is holding current levels; Momentum moving higher
Commodities:
CRB Index: Strong new long-term trend; forming a flag
Reflation trade intact
Precious Metals finding support within a long-term uptrend
Copper looks ready for a move higher
Copper/Gold remains strong above critical levels
Oil grinding along 50-day
Bonds / Rates
US Bonds:
IEF finding support & bouncing; RSI at 52 (Within a bearish regime)
TIP continues to grind higher
TIP is at a new multi-year high relative to IEF.
LQD finding some support
Still a supportive environment for stocks and risk assets more broadly
The trend continues to favour high yield over high quality.
Global & US Yields:
TNX holding above 1.40%; probability looks like its heading to 2%
Yields globally grinding sideways
US requires support from JP & DE to move higher
The curve continues to steepen
Overseas Markets
Broad Indices:
World market ETF at all-time highs; Overbought RSI
Like the US, many other indices at all-time or 52-wk highs
Developed markets healthy technically, longer-term
Developed taking the leadership role
Emerging markets showing weak relative strength and momentum
A mix of leading and lagging within emerging markets
Frontier markets approaching 2020 highs
Countries:
DAX: All-time highs; strong move last week; Highly Overbought RSI(79.43)
UK: Finished the week strong; RSI Overbought(70.45)
France: 20-year highs; Strong momentum
Japan: Consolidation continuing; Weakening relative strength
China: Holding above support and 200-day
India: Consolidating; Weakening relative strength and momentum
Russia: Sideways mess continues
Brazil: Back above 50-day MA; Sideways mess
US Stock Market
Index:
S&P scored a new all-time high – holding above 4,000
The short-term trend is up – bulls are in charge
Strong breadth and leadership which is a huge positive for the longer term
It continues to look like a cyclical bull market
Rotation & broadening is still clearly evident
Short-term weakness still in small-caps
Mid and Large-Cap leading the team
Stocks in a ‘Confirmed’ Bull Market
S&P500 breadth and leadership very healthy
Nasdaq100 breadth and leadership is improving daily!
Mixed Sentiment & seasonality remain risks
US Large, Mid and Small-cap Sectors:
100% are in a Bullish Regime
All Sectors in a ‘Confirmed’ Bull Market
94% had a positive percentage change week
45% Made all-time daily highs last week
Defensive sectors of the market the only areas not near all-time highs
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Stay safe, and good luck out there…
GH
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