Weight of the evidence - January

A look at my monthly chartbook of 100 of the most important charts

We have all been there….

We all have seen others do it too…

We observe one chart and then all of sudden we are drawing broad base conclusions on that one chart.

Well, this is just a silly approach when looking at the markets!

The first thing we need to do is take a deep breath……….. Are you feeling better now? Yeah? ok, good!…

Now we need to ask ourselves, “How does this new chart fit within the context of all the other charts?” then we want to identify how much importance we want to put on this particular chart. So, we need to take a step back, evaluate all of the charts, weigh the evidence and then come up with our conclusions.

This would have to be my favourite exercise each month.

The value I obtain from ripping over my monthly chartbook of 100 of the most important charts from around the world is just priceless, without a doubt nothing else I do throughout my entire process provides this much value for me.

I have always been told, whenever in doubt, zoom out. The longer-term view helps put things into perspective and makes it near impossible to ignore the primary trend. It's all about that Dow theory baby!

So, let’s get stuck into those 100 monthly charts:

1.    S&P 500 INDEX - SPX  

2.    Dow Jones Industrial Average - DJI

3.    Dow Jones Transportation Average - DJT

4.    NASDAQ Composite Index - COMPX  

5.    NYSE Composite Index - NYA

6.    Invesco QQQ Trust - QQQ

7.    iShares Russell 2000 ETF - IWM  

8.    IWM / QQQ  

9.    SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF - MDY  

10.  iShares Russell Microcap Index Fund ETF - IWC  

11.  S&P Composite 1500 Index - SP1500

12.  iShares MSCI All Country World Index Fund ETF - ACWI

13.  iShares S&P Global 100 Index Fund ETF - IOO

14.  Value Line Arithmetic Index - VLA  

15.  Value Line Geometric Index - VLG  

16.  The Global Dow - GDOW

17.  Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index - TRJCRB  

18.  CRB Commodity Continuous Index - TRCCI  

19.  VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF - MOO  

20.  Light, Sweet Crude Oil Futures - CL2Spot

21.  Natural Gas Futures - NGSpot

22.  Gold Futures - GC2Spot

23.  VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF

24.  SPY / GLD

25.  Silver Futures - SI2Spot

26. High-Grade Copper Future - HGSpot

27.  US Dollar Index - DXY

28.  Euro / US Dollar - EURUSD

29.  US Dollar / Japanese Yen - USDJPY

30.  British Pound Sterling / US Dollar - GBPUSD  

31.  Euro STOXX 50 Index - STOXX  

32.  iShares MSCI Europe Financials Sector Index Fund ETF - EUFN

33.  DAX Index - DAXX  

34.  FTSE 100 Index - FTSE  

35.  FTSE MIB Index - FTSEMIB  

36.  DJ World Stock Index Dow Jones Europe Financials Index - E1FIN

37.  Deutsche Bank AG - Registered Shares - DB

38.  S&P TSX Composite Index - TSX

39.  S&P/ASX 200 - XJO  

40.  Nikkei Stock Average 225 - NI

41.  iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF - EEM  

42.  EEM / SPY

43.  iShares MSCI Frontier 100 Index ETF - FM

44.  Ibovespa - Brazil Index - BVSP

45.  NSE Nifty 50 Index - NIFTY50

46.  Shanghai Composite Index - SSEC

47.  Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF - ASHR  

48.  SPDR Financial Select Sector Fund ETF - XLF

49.  SPDR S&P Bank ETF - KBE

50.  SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF - KRE

51.  SPDR S&P Capital Markets ETF - KCE

52.  iShares U.S. Financial Services ETF - IYG

53.  iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Security Exchanges ETF - IAI

54.  SPDR Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Fund ETF - XLY

55.  SPDR Technology Select Sector Fund ETF - XLK

56.  PHLX Semiconductor Index - SOX

57.  First Trust Dow Jones Internet ETF - FDN  

58.  Communication Services Select Sector Index - IXC

59.  SPDR Industrial Select Sector Fund ETF - XLI  

60.  SPDR Energy Select Sector Fund ETF - XLE

61.  SPDR Materials Select Sector Fund ETF - XLB  

62.  iShares U.S. Home Construction Index Fund ETF - ITB  

63.  SPDR Health Care Select Sector Fund ETF - XLV

64.  SPDR S&P Biotech ETF - XBI  

65.  iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF - IBB  

66.  iShares U.S. Medical Devices ETF - IHI  

67.  SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector Fund ETF - XLP

68.  SPDR Utilities Select Sector Fund ETF - XLU  

69.  Dow Jones Utility Average - DJU

70.  iShares U.S. Telecommunications ETF - IYZ

71.  iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF - IYR

72.  iShares U.S. Consumer Services ETF - IYC

73.  iShares U.S. Consumer Goods ETF - IYK  

74.  SPDR S&P Retail ETF - XRT  

75.  SPY / TLT

76.  GLD / TLT

77.  XLY / XLP

78.  Treasury Yield 10-Year Note - TNX

79.  Treasury Yield 30-Year Note - TYX

80.  iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF - TLT

81.  iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF - IEF

82.  iShares iBoxx $ HY Corp Bond Fund ETF - HYG

83.  iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF - LQD

84.  iShares TIPS Bond ETF - TIP

85.  Amazon.com, Inc - AMZN

86.  Apple Inc - AAPL

87.  Microsoft Corporation - MSFT

88.  Alphabet Inc - GOOG  

89.  Facebook Inc - FB

90.  Nvidia Corp - NVDA  

91.  Berkshire Hathaway Inc.  - BRK.B

92.  Exxon Mobil Corp - XOM

93.  General Electric Co - GE

94.  JPMorgan Chase & Co - JPM  

95.  Goldman Sachs Group, Inc - GS

96.  Freeport-McMoRan Inc - FCX  

97.  Newmont Corp - NEM  

98.  Renaissance IPO ETF - IPO  

99.  Bitcoin - BTCUSD

100. Ethereum - ETHUSD

A few things that stood out to me were a lot of long upper wicks on these monthly candles, which suggests some short-term weakness and maybe for the rest of Q1. If you don’t understand what I mean by long upper wicks, I will give you a quick rundown.

A long wick that extends above the candle means that buyers were able to push the price up significantly. However, bears were able to drive the price back down, showing sellers strength. Since the bears overpowered the buying pressure by bulls, there exists the potential that their strength will carry forward, leading to further movements in the price downwards. 

However, there were certain areas of the market still posting new all-time monthly closing, so here is that list of those making new all-time monthly closing high:

• COMPX

• QQQ

• IWM

• MDY

• IWC

• VLA

• MOO

• SOX

• FDN

• ITB

• XLV

• XBI

• IBB

• IHI

• XRT

• TIP

• MSFT

• GOOG

• IPO

• BTC

• ETH

Alright, I have laid down the foundation, It’s now up to you to make your interpretation… you need to do some of the work too!!

What did you learn from your monthly review? Let me know!

Did you even do a monthly review?

If you need a hand setting up a monthly review, reach out to me on Twitter!

That’s a wrap for today, hope you enjoyed my charts, and please don’t forget to share your ideas in the comment section or get in contact with me on Twitter @granthawkridge.

If you enjoyed this blog, please consider sharing for more to see!

Stay safe and good luck out there…

GH

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